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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."